Foresight study of the ruminant meat sector in the Massif Central area of France in 2050

Abstract

This foresight study describes five 2050 contrasting scenarios of possible futures for ruminant meat sectors of the Massif central area in order to help its economic players to adapt and to anticipate. The study deals with the present recurring questions of meat production systems sustainability, according to the risks of a drop in individual meat consumption, global warming, age structure of farmers, and the high level in subsidies. The five scenarios were constructed thanks to a collective expert research approach, with regards to the issues identified by the Massif’s stakeholders. With its own coherence and rationale, each scenario highlights possible consequences on production, jobs and labor, environmental assessment and land uses. These were estimated by an original approach combining expertise, literature review and modeling. An adapted grassland management and the establishment of a meat quality guaranty are the key sensitive issues in all five scenarios. The cross-analysis of these contrasting results also shows what stake-holders could do in order to seize upcoming opportunities.