French poultry in 2025. INRA-ITAVI foresight

Abstract

For about ten years, the French poultry sector has faced both competition from new poultry-exporting countries and growing societal concerns about animal welfare, food safety, and environmental impact of production systems. As such, while world poultry-meat production increased nearly 4% per year during that period, it decreased by 2.3% per year in France, making poultry farmers, public and other private stakeholders worried about the future of poultry farming. To help French stakeholders design their strategies for the future, a technical institute (ITAVI) and a research institute (INRA) conducted a scenario-building exercise. Based on the interviews of stakeholders and an 18 month series of discussions with a Panel of poultry experts, four future scenarios were deve-loped. They go beyond simply extending current trends by taking into account ncertainties such as potential shifts in European policies and regulations, consumer attitudes, and stakeholder strategies. Levers of action were identified by the exploration of different possible futures for poultry in 2025. These strategic options concern the stakeholders’ strategies, public policy and research. Although no scenario envisages strong production growth by 2025, all, however, underline the importance of multidisciplinary research to characterize the quality and sustainability of production, and, in turn, to improve competitiveness.