Towards a multidimensional risk analysis framework for pastoral livestock systems at the wildlife interface

Abstract

Pastoral systems operate within constrained ecosystems where livestock, wildlife, and human activities coexist. This coexistence generates multiple and complex risks, increasingly intensified by global change, that remain insufficiently addressed through integrated analytical approaches. Characterizing the main risks affecting pastoral livestock systems at the wildlife interface is essential to ensure the sustainability of pastoral territories. Based on a large bibliographic corpus, this article proposes an analytical framework to understand the diversity and complexity of risks at the interface between wildlife and livestock systems. The thematic analysis draws on 150 articles identified through eight targeted search equations. Three categories of risks were identified: (1) biological and ecological risks (zoonoses, parasitic diseases, predation, and competition); (2) socio-economic risks (financial losses, conflicts, and psychosocial impacts); and (3) systemic amplifying risks (climate change, societal transformations, and habitat loss and fragmentation). This framework highlights the existence of multiple, interwoven, and synchronous risks that are deeply embedded within complex socio-ecological systems. Risk is thus approached as a transversal concept, allowing us to move beyond sectoral perspectives and to capture the multidimensional nature of the wildlife–pastoral livestock interface. The livestock–wildlife interface appears deeply multidimensional, encompassing ecological, health, economic, and social dimensions. Furthermore, the deterioration of human–nature relationships has emerged as a latent and structuring risk, shaping dynamics of both conflict and cooperation. This article therefore calls for a rethinking of the conditions for sustainable coexistence between livestock and wildlife, through a systemic and place-based approach to risk analysis aimed at strengthening the resilience of pastoral systems in the context of global change.