Prospects for the French equine industry in 2030. Four contrasting scenarios to inform decision-making

Abstract

To plan for the knowledge and innovation needs of tomorrow, but also to help stakeholders anticipate future developments, the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) and the French Institute for Horses and Horse Riding (IFCE) have joined forces to conduct a scenario building exercise for the French equine industry in 2030. Exploring different futures sheds new light on a context which opposes increasing popular interest in equestrian activities and horse racing, and difficulties due to the decline of State support, the increase in international competition, societal changes regarding animal welfare and the harmonization of regulations at the European level. The analysis of past and current trends, and potential shifts thereof has led to four scenarioscharacterized by different horse usages, different horse populations, and jobs. However, they raise shared concerns in terms of i) the relationship between man and the horse, ii)economic efficiency,iii) environmental issues,iv)preservation of breeds and pressure on surfaces, and v) health, animal welfare and looking after animals up to and beyond death. These questions call for research development in the fields of animal behaviour, economic and social sciences, breeding and genetic improvement. They also emphasize the need to improve knowledge and innovation transmission.