Incertainties and adaptative capacities : theories and applications to the analysis of livestock farming systems dynamics

Abstract

How can account be taken of the adaptive capacities of livestock systems in an environment that is permanently undergoing disruptions, some of which are shocks that bring the system itself into question ? We propose to explore this question by mobilising the concepts of resilience and flexibility and consulting recent work carried out on farm and in systemic modelling. Surveys carried out in France and in Uruguay (dairy and beef cattle) suggest that the positions to enlargement, specialisation and functioning (technical or management ambition, or the search for system flexibility) differentiate the long term action logics of farmers whose livestock system shows resilience. These action logics also mark the levers of operational flexibility, i.e. resistance to short term hazards on climate and prices : flexibility is external in systems that are productive but technically strained ; internal in more extensive systems where the sales profile can be adjusted to conditions over the year. A review of recent French livestock farming system models show how systemic modelling deals with questions of buffer properties and adaptive management which establish the adaptive capacity, and explore flexible systems. But the models remain isolated from a disciplinary point of view and have difficulty in tackling the co-evolution of systems and the environment over the long-term.