Modelling applications for aquatic animal health

Abstract

Prevention is essential in order to fight against disease propagation and their consequences, in particular because curative methods areless efficient in the open and marine environment. Modelling as a predictive tool is in this case particularly accurate. A bibliographic review of published models in aquatic health was made for the European project DIPNET. Quantitative risk assessment is made for somediseases of salmonids of north European countries, in order to protect transfers, to make risk-based surveillance, and to prevent fromemerging diseases. Dynamic models have begun to be used for risk management, for salmonids and shellfish (USA) but are depending ontheir complexity, data- and time-consuming. Dynamic models are, however, necessary for evaluating the effects of measures predictively, with a complex system of causality. Classical rigorous epidemiologic studies are not numerous in aquatic health, however they are of particularinterest for risk management of health problems. For aquatic animal health, there are few models that take into account spatial analysis, economic or ecologic consequences . This is surprising because of the strong well-known interactions between the host and environmentin aquatic systems, and because of the interest for the risk manager. Modelling work needs multidisciplinary skills, which aresometimes difficult to share for aquatic productions.